IBOR reform: LIBOR deadlines, where are we now – global outlook Q1 2022 review

As the deadline for LIBOR cessation in GBP, CHF, JPY, and EUR passed in December 2021 we thought we would take a look at the data to get the latest picture of global IBOR reform as of Q1 2022.
Our previous IBOR transition reviews are available here: Q4 2021, Q3 2021, Q2 2021 and Q1 2021.

 

OSTTRA through its post trade processing service MarkitWire facilitated the migration of legacy cleared portfolios from IBORs to RFRs in CHF, EUR, GBP and JPY as part of the CCP LIBOR conversion events. MarkitWire processed over 1,000,000 trade sides for over 100 counterparties, through its CCP Synchronization service, over several months culminating in the final GBP run on December 17th.  The industry is now busy preparing for the USD transition that will take place mid-2023.  The OSTTRA team is already discussing this transition with impacted stakeholders and will be ready to support all events linked to the transition, including the highly anticipated transition dry runs.

In addition, OSTTRA’s triReduce service compressed legacy IBORs as part of its compression service. In Q1 2022, triReduce has compressed its largest amount of USD notional since 2018 reaching $32 trillion for over 50 entities which also includes dependant currency indices (SGD and THB).

OSTTRA has assessed the data processed by our MarkitWire platform to evaluate the progress of interbank offered rate (IBOR) transition for the $355 trillion single currency interest rate swaps (IRS) market. Analysing market share in; EUR, GBP, USD, JPY, CHF, AUD, CAD, and SGD between legacy IBORs, legacy / continuing overnight index swaps (OIS) and the new risk-free rates (RFRs).


How has the market share of RFRs evolved since the start of 2020?

 

GBP Swaps

Background: Reformed SONIA has replaced LIBOR which ceased publication on 31 December, 2021.

Here is how the story unfolded with 100% of single currency interest rate swaps executed in SONIA in 2022.

 

EUR Swaps

Background: EuroSTR (a.k.a. €STR) has replaced EONIA. It is expected that EURIBOR will continue to be published until at least 2025 but that there will be a material migration to EuroSTR. EUR-LIBOR ceased publication on December 31, 2021 but hadn’t been materially traded in the swaps market for at least a decade.

EuroSTR has jumped to over 20% of EUR swaps executed. Much of this came from EONIA’s demise but EURIBOR has fallen from just under 90% to just under 80% over the past 6 months.

 

… and approximately 60% of notional traded.

 

USD Swaps

Background: SOFR will replace Fed Funds and USD-LIBOR, although the ARRC have approved a Term-SOFR whose adoption will be interesting to watch… There was an initial uptick in SOFR at the end of October 2020 driven by the CCPs switching from Fed Funds to SOFR discounting on 16th October 2020. Unlike the other LIBORs it is expected USD-LIBOR will continue to be published until June 30, 2023, albeit “SOFR first” applied to interdealer swaps from 26th July 2021.

SOFR has continued its charge, over 60% of new USD swaps executed in March 2022 referenced SOFR, continuing a month-by-month march forward. BSBY swaps, a credit sensitive rate, have traded every month since September but remain <0.1%.

IBOR reform: USD LIBOR deadline, the big one approaches…

SOFR dollar swaps surge to new record as transition deadline looms

A record 85% of USD swaps referenced the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) benchmark in March, according to data from OSTTRA. This comes at a critical milestone in the transition to Risk-Free Rates (RFRs), with USD London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) due to expire in less than 90 days (30 June 2023).

The growth in the volume of USD SOFR referenced swaps executed in March continues a steady month-by-month progression for the new derivative contracts, rising 23% over the last 12 months from 62% in March 2022.

The increased adoption of SOFR – an alternative rate to LIBOR that measures the cost of borrowing cash overnight collateralised by US Treasuries – comes in response to the decision to discontinue LIBOR following concerns surrounding the benchmark rate’s reliability and accuracy.

OSTTRA, through its post trade processing and compression services, helps firms smoothly transition from legacy IBORs to RFRs including playing a crucial role in enabling firms to manage the migration of legacy cleared portfolios.

“This data paints an encouraging picture of the industry’s progress in transitioning away from LIBOR,” says Kirston Winters, Chief Risk Officer at OSTTRA. “As we saw with the successful departure from IBOR across mainstream markets such as the UK and Japan, the operational burden in delivering this kind of switch is certainly manageable and can even be executed smoothly. That said, we haven’t reached the finish line just yet – a wide variety of key market participants must continue to cooperate effectively over the coming months, as we enter the final critical stage of this historic migration.”

 

Read the full report

Brexit Impact on Trading Location: Global OTC IRS Markets – Q1 2023 Review

US Races Ahead of EU in Post-Brexit Euro Swaps Trading

As Brexit continues to dent London’s historic dominance of euro swaps trading, the majority of on-venue business is fleeing to Wall Street, not Europe.

New data from OSTTRA MarkitWire found London trading venues’ share of the euro interest rate swap market slipped to just 14% in March. In the same period, US market share of on-venue euro swaps was 51%, the highest recorded share. In contrast, EU venues had just over a third (35%) – their lowest share since December 2020.

The findings are the latest sign of the repercussions on the City from Brexit, which cut off access to most London trading from the bloc. The data shows a continual downward drift since the UK officially left the Single Market back in January 2021. So far this year, the UK venues’ average is just 15%, down from 16% in 2022, and 17% in 2021. Prior to leaving the EU, UK market share for euro interest rate swaps trading was north of 70%.

“While market share is certainly one aspect of this post-Brexit story, market access is the other,” according to Kirston Winters, Chief Risk Officer at OSTTRA. “Certain EU and UK banks, as well as EU and UK investment managers, have significantly reduced market access for transactions that are subject to an EU or UK derivatives trading obligation.

The reality is that many clients in the UK are unable to trade on EU venues, and vice versa. This means that to trade certain derivative products on UK venues, firms must either stay in their home market or utilise a US swaps execution facility (SEF) venue to gain broader liquidity, unable to access the other European market available. The swap markets may have previously been truly global, but it is now very much fragmented.”

 

Read the full report

IBOR reform: USD LIBOR deadline, the big one approaches…

As the deadline for USD LIBOR cessation fast approaches, we took a look at the data to get the latest picture of global IBOR reform as of the end of Q1 2023.

OSTTRA through its post trade processing service MarkitWire first facilitated the processing of Secured Overnight Financing Rate (“SOFR”) swaps in July 2018. The first migration of legacy cleared portfolios from USD-LIBOR to SOFR were processed by OSTTRA MarkitWire on the weekend of 22 April 2023. This included trades cleared at Eurex, CME Group and LCH. OSTTRA MarkitWire processed over 250k trades for over 150 counterparties, through its CCP Synchronization service. The main LCH USD conversion and the HKEX conversion is scheduled for 20 May 2023. OSTTRA MarkitWire will also process trades as part of the conversation for dependant currency indices (SGD and THB) in June 2023. The conversion for USD is considerably larger than previous conversions in GBP, EUR, CHF and JPY.

In addition, OSTTRA triReduce has continued to compress legacy USD-LIBOR swaps as part of its compression service. In 2023 OSTTRA triReduce has compressed $8.474 trillion of notional, for 68 entities which also includes dependant currency indices (SGD and THB).

OSTTRA has assessed the data processed by OSTTRA MarkitWire to evaluate the progress of interbank offered rate (IBOR) transition for the $414 trillion single currency interest rate swaps (IRS) market. Analysing market share in USD and CAD between legacy IBORs, overnight index swaps (OIS) and the new risk-free rates (RFRs).

USD swaps

Background:

As the deadline approaches SOFR has continued its charge, a new record of 85% of new USD swaps executed in March 2023 referenced SOFR, continuing a month-by-month progression.

 

In terms of notional traded, SOFR has been consistently around 40% for the last few months due to Fed funds maintaining around 50% share by notional.

CAD Swaps

Background:
Canada is taking a multiple rate approach. Reformed/enhanced CORRA will continue alongside the incumbent CDOR.

CDOR continues to dominate swap volumes, but CORRA has progressed strongly in Q1 2023 with a record share of trade count at 28% of CAD swaps executed in March 2023. That is nearly triple its historic levels.

 

In notional traded terms CDOR has been the majority since November 2022 with March 2023 marking a new record of almost 70%.

 

 

 

Conclusion

As the transition of USD-LIBOR approaches, despite the evident progress to date, their remains much to be done in the time remaining. With the experience gained in other currencies such as GBP, EUR, CHF and JPY the industry is well placed to ensure smooth transition.

IBOR reform: LIBOR deadlines, where are we now – global outlook Q1 2022 review

As the deadline for LIBOR cessation in GBP, CHF, JPY, and EUR passed in December 2021 we thought we would take a look at the data to get the latest picture of global IBOR reform as of Q1 2022.
Our previous IBOR transition reviews are available here: Q4 2021, Q3 2021, Q2 2021 and Q1 2021.

 

OSTTRA through its post trade processing service MarkitWire facilitated the migration of legacy cleared portfolios from IBORs to RFRs in CHF, EUR, GBP and JPY as part of the CCP LIBOR conversion events. MarkitWire processed over 1,000,000 trade sides for over 100 counterparties, through its CCP Synchronization service, over several months culminating in the final GBP run on December 17th.  The industry is now busy preparing for the USD transition that will take place mid-2023.  The OSTTRA team is already discussing this transition with impacted stakeholders and will be ready to support all events linked to the transition, including the highly anticipated transition dry runs.

In addition, OSTTRA’s triReduce service compressed legacy IBORs as part of its compression service. In Q1 2022, triReduce has compressed its largest amount of USD notional since 2018 reaching $32 trillion for over 50 entities which also includes dependant currency indices (SGD and THB).

OSTTRA has assessed the data processed by our MarkitWire platform to evaluate the progress of interbank offered rate (IBOR) transition for the $355 trillion single currency interest rate swaps (IRS) market. Analysing market share in; EUR, GBP, USD, JPY, CHF, AUD, CAD, and SGD between legacy IBORs, legacy / continuing overnight index swaps (OIS) and the new risk-free rates (RFRs).


How has the market share of RFRs evolved since the start of 2020?

 

GBP Swaps

Background: Reformed SONIA has replaced LIBOR which ceased publication on 31 December, 2021.

Here is how the story unfolded with 100% of single currency interest rate swaps executed in SONIA in 2022.

 

EUR Swaps

Background: EuroSTR (a.k.a. €STR) has replaced EONIA. It is expected that EURIBOR will continue to be published until at least 2025 but that there will be a material migration to EuroSTR. EUR-LIBOR ceased publication on December 31, 2021 but hadn’t been materially traded in the swaps market for at least a decade.

EuroSTR has jumped to over 20% of EUR swaps executed. Much of this came from EONIA’s demise but EURIBOR has fallen from just under 90% to just under 80% over the past 6 months.

 

… and approximately 60% of notional traded.

 

USD Swaps

Background: SOFR will replace Fed Funds and USD-LIBOR, although the ARRC have approved a Term-SOFR whose adoption will be interesting to watch… There was an initial uptick in SOFR at the end of October 2020 driven by the CCPs switching from Fed Funds to SOFR discounting on 16th October 2020. Unlike the other LIBORs it is expected USD-LIBOR will continue to be published until June 30, 2023, albeit “SOFR first” applied to interdealer swaps from 26th July 2021.

SOFR has continued its charge, over 60% of new USD swaps executed in March 2022 referenced SOFR, continuing a month-by-month march forward. BSBY swaps, a credit sensitive rate, have traded every month since September but remain <0.1%.

Time to act – Smart transitions to UMR compliance

Firms face many challenges as phases five and six UMR deadlines loom. They must get their AANA calculations right to determine which phase they are in. With only three months to prepare, further complications related to an overload of firms aiming to complete the same steps may leave phase five firms with many options closed to them. Here, Neil Murphy, Business Manager at TriOptima, highlights the critical steps for phase five and six firms, offering insights into priorities, potential pitfalls and solutions for a smart transition to UMR compliance.

– Neil Murphy, Business Manager, TriOptima

 

Only about 70-75 firms have come into the scope of the Uncleared Margin Rules (UMR) since 2016 across phases one to four. However, we are expecting more than 300 phase five firms in September 2021 and upwards of 600 phase six firms in September 2022. What are the challenges for the industry related to the sheer volume of firms coming into scope of the UMR?

Firms will be relying on common resources; vendors, lawyers, consultants, and even regulators. They will be trying to complete the same steps, be that onboarding to a triparty or custodian, or negotiation of legal documentation with the same four tri-parties and maybe the same 10 or 15 dealer banks. A critical consequence of this is potentially more limited choices. For example, we have seen tri-parties and custodians establish onboarding cut-off dates, earlier in the year. So, firms looking to onboard between now and September 1 may find some of their paths are closed. Similarly, firms who want to sign regulatory IM CSAs with all of their dealer counterparties may find dealers being more selective at this point, perhaps looking to onboard premium clients first, or less open to negotiation of the underlying CSA terms.

 

Could you talk about the average aggregate notional amount (AANA) calculation and how phase five and six firms should approach this?

The AANA calculation is critical. It is a key determinant in identifying when a firm is in scope. Given the importance of determining the phase, it is important to get it right, but also, to do it early. The most recent AANA observation window effectively just ended in May, which would only leave three months for a firm to prepare for September, which is unlikely to be sufficient.

For those firms who are not yet in scope, there are several nuances to the AANA calculation concerning data. Chief among those is the aggregation of multiple data sources. When firms are thinking about AANA calculation, the first step is to perform the calculations at the group level and to identify all the relevant entities in the group. The consolidation of data for all positions across the group can present a challenge when coming from multiple sources. This creates an additional hurdle for multi-manager firms where each manager has a limited view of exposure only. Plus firms may face challenges in relation to differences across various jurisdictions, impacting product coverage, calculation methodology and observation windows.

Questions remain with regards to how to account for the correct notional on certain product types and there are calls for further guidance from rule makers.

 

How much progress have phase five and six firms made and how should they prioritise their efforts?

The industry has always talked about UMR compliance as requiring a one-year-plus project. But it’s not a hard and fast timeline. Critically, the rules don’t impact all firms equally. So, firms who expect their IM exposure to grow quickly will require different preparation steps than firms that may be brought in scope by the size of their AANA, but expect their IM exposure to remain very low, and can take advantage of regulatory relief.

Regardless of the size of the firm, or even the expected IM impact, all firms are focused on the IM calculation as their key priority. And my key recommendation to clients is that they should perform this calculation as early as possible, since without it I’m not sure they can confidently define a project plan, engage with counterparties or make decisions about their technology needs.

For those firms who do expect to quickly exceed IM thresholds and begin exchanging IM margin, we see that many have already moved to, or are about to move into a soft go-live phase, whereby they’re doing daily IM calculations across their portfolios, engaging with counterparties to investigate differences, and really simulating what the process will look like after September 1. I think getting to that stage ahead of the summer is a great position to be in. It will provide sufficient time to iron out calculation kinks and better understand how SIMM impacts their portfolio and allow them time to work with their counterparties on reconciling differences. And, whilst a fair number of people are in this position already, and others are hoping to be there by the end of Q2, there are still firms that will squeeze through the door at the last minute.

 

Do you expect a trend in firms using the AANA calculation and IM monitoring as part of UMR avoidance strategies?

UMR avoidance is more about reducing your AANA so that you can delay the impact, or even perhaps remain out of scope, permanently. This is something that may be achieved by a change in trading strategy. For example, compressing a portfolio or clearing trades where you are eligible to lower overall positions. However, for any firm that does manage to lower their AANA below $8 billion, the compliance obligation does not just disappear. Instead, they will be required to repeat that AANA calculation in subsequent years to verify whether they come within scope at that point.

Once you breach the AANA threshold and you’re in scope, you can’t avoid UMR per se. Granted, regulators have provided some relief which means you don’t have to complete all of the legal documentation steps or open custodian accounts. But you still must perform IM calculation and monitoring. It means, obviously, a lower compliance burden and less to do operationally if some of the steps can be delayed or do not apply.

 

Could you talk about the collateral processing needs associated with regulatory IM and how they differ from variation margin (VM) requirements?

At a high level, the calculation of VM and IM margin calls are quite similar. You compare your inputs, i.e. SIMM or schedule exposure to the terms of the IM CSA, and any outstanding collateral balance. This determines whether additional collateral is required, and whether a call should be issued. For VM, the mechanics are the same, simply replacing SIMM with mark-to-market. But a key difference is the exchange of IM is on a non-netted basis, which means two margin calls will be required, for both receipt and delivery of initial margin.

Other key differences relate to the exchange of collateral, which is likely to be non-cash. This will create new challenges associated with funding and settlement of securities for firms that have relied on cash for variation margin.

Perhaps the largest difference on the collateral side is the requirement for segregation of any collateral posted as IM. Phase one to four firms have largely adopted a triparty model. This poses a steep learning curve for in-scope firms as they need to establish new triparty relationships, onboard and upgrade their systems. Plus in the triparty model the actual margin call process differs from VM, with firms agreeing the call amount only, and the task of allocating collateral being done separately by the agent. Perhaps the biggest collateral challenge for firms is connectivity to multiple tri-parties and custodians – since your counterparties may choose a range different agent than you – and ensuring that you are not reliant on fax or logging in to multiple portals in order to instruct movements. Legacy processes tend to support cash and securities payment only, so firms will need to establish new ways of instructing payments, as well as ensuring firms have the necessary transparency to view any triparty collateral allocations.

 

How would you contrast the firms now coming into scope with phase one to four firms and how do their needs differ from those in earlier phases?

The size of the IM exposure and the associated time to breach the regulatory threshold is the key difference for phase five and six firms. Many phase one to four firms exceeded IM thresholds very quickly, some even on day one. In contrast, IM may remain low for phase five and six firms for a long time, or even forever for smaller parties. So, IM monitoring will be sufficient for many, something that wasn’t even an option to firms in earlier phases.

Phase five and six firms require more comprehensive systems support than firms in earlier phases. They may require help with IM calculation and the margining process, as well as settlement. Firms in earlier phases were often able to reuse large parts of their existing infrastructure. They had more advanced risk systems capable of generating the underlying sensitivities, for example, and take-up among TriOptima clients was probably skewed towards collateral management, with many capable of managing their own IM calculations. In contrast, a large degree of phase five and six firms require support for both IM calculation and collateral management, evidenced here at TriOptima by strong adoption of both triCalculate and triResolve Margin.

In earlier phases, IM reconciliation was a day-one priority with close to 100% adoption of AcadiaSoft’s Initial Margin Exposure Manager (IMEM). In contrast, IM exposure will likely take more time to build up here. So, there is less focus on IM reconciliation and it will be interesting to see how firms will fare when they start to exchange IM calls, or perhaps observe their first differences with counterparties since the question of how they are going to manage and resolve IM disputes may have been overlooked. In the VM world, there is a long-established process for portfolio reconciliation using triResolve as a centralized market standard, which can be mirrored for IM through the adoption of a similar standard for IM sensitivity reconciliation by means of IMEM.

 

To what extent has TriOptima adapted its service offering and operational set-up in preparation for the latter UMR phases?

The first new function we have added is IM monitoring. The addition of a dedicated monitoring dashboard allows clients to measure their own IM (as well as counterparty IM) on a daily basis, to compare it to a local or even an agreed soft threshold, and to receive an automated alert when that limit is breached. At that point, if they move to sign an initial margin CSA, they can seamlessly switch from monitoring to active margining.

The second key change we have introduced is connectivity to custodians & tri-parties with our new SWIFT settlement capability. We recognized early on that the obligation to connect, not just to your own preferred triparty or custodian, but also to the triparty of each of your counterparties, posed a significant technical hurdle for firms. And associated with that, a failure to connect to them would create a level of operational risk that is not acceptable to firms, because the alternative would mean logging into custodian portals manually and even sending faxes. Our addition of automated SWIFT connectivity uniquely offers clients connectivity to all 4 triparty agents, real-time settlement instruction, plus the benefit of consolidated collateral reporting & validation.

To learn more about initial margin, visit cmegroup.com/im-compliance

IBOR reform: Q3 2021 review – SORA, SARON, TONA and SOFR are the big movers…

Following up on our Q2 and Q1 reviews OSTTRA has assessed the data processed by our MarkitWire platform to evaluate the progress during Q3 of interbank offered rate (IBOR) transition for the $355 trillion single currency interest rate swaps (IRS) market. Analysing market share in; EUR, GBP, USD, JPY, CHF, AUD, CAD, and SGD between legacy IBORs, legacy / continuing overnight index swaps (OIS) and the new risk free rates (RFRs).

 

 

How has the market share of RFRs evolved since the start of 2020?

 

GBP Swaps

Background: Reformed SONIA will replace LIBOR which will cease publication on December 31, 2021.

GBP continues to lead the pack; reformed SONIA now makes up almost 80% of new trades executed…

 

… and approximately 85% of the notional traded.

 

EUR Swaps

Background: EuroSTR (a.k.a. €STR) will replace EONIA. There was an initial uptick at the end of July 2020 driven by the CCPs switching from EONIA to EuroSTR discounting on 25 July 2020. It is expected that EURIBOR will continue to be published until at least 2025 but that there will be a material migration to EuroSTR. EUR-LIBOR will cease publication on 31 December 2021, but it is not traded in the swaps market, there have been <10 trades a month for many years

EuroSTR continues its modest progress creeping up to 4.5% of EUR swaps executed in September, up some 50% from 2.8% in June.

 

… and approximately 7% of notional traded.

IBOR reform: Q3 2021 review continued – P2

USD Swaps

Background: SOFR will replace Fed Funds and USD-LIBOR, although the ARRC has recently approved a Term-SOFR whose adoption will be interesting to watch… There was an initial uptick in SOFR at the end of October 2020 driven by the CCPs switching from Fed Funds to SOFR discounting on 16 October 2020. Unlike the other LIBORs it is expected USD-LIBOR will continue to be published until 30 June, 2023, albeit “SOFR first” applied to interdealer swaps from 26 July 2021.

SOFR has suddenly picked up with the SOFR first initiative driving SOFR up to 17% of USD swaps executed in September, up some sixfold from 3% in June. Interestingly we also saw the first handful of BSBY trades in September, one to watch.

 

… and approximately 12% of notional.

Adoption of SOFR on non-linear products like Swaptions have been less successful, due in part to the absence of a USD ICE SWAP RATE for SOFR. The USD SOFR ICE Swap Rate and USD SOFR Spread-Adjusted ICE SWAP Rate are currently in Beta. Full publication of these rates will certainly help the industry further adopt SOFR in place if LIBOR.

 

JPY Swaps

Background: Japan is taking a multiple rate approach. DTIBOR is expected to continue alongside TONA. ZTIBOR is expected to be discontinued at the end of December 2024, but the timing and the specifics as well as whether to cease ZTIBOR, will be finally determined through public consultation going forward. JPY-LIBOR will cease publication on 31 December, 2021.

TONA has had a dramatic uptick to 60% of JPY swaps executed in September, up some twelvefold from 4.5% in June.

 

CHF Swaps

Background: CHF-LIBOR will cease publication on 31 December, 2021.

SARON has had a significant uptick to almost two thirds of CHF swaps executed in September, more than doubling from less than 30% in June.

 

CAD Swaps

Background: Canada is taking a multiple rate approach. Reformed/enhanced CORRA will continue alongside CDOR.

There has been little change with CORRA continuing to make up less than 5% of CAD swaps executed.

 

AUD Swaps

Background: Australia is taking a multiple rate approach. The reformed BBSW is expected to continue alongside AONIA.

Activity in AONIA has been very subdued over the last 12 months but has suddenly increased to 5% of AUD swaps executed in September, up from 1% in June.

 

SGD Swaps

Background: Singapore initially took a multiple rate approach. However, the reform of SIBOR to base it more on transaction data failed and will cease in 2024. SOR is expected to be replaced by SORA.

Activity in SORA has been very subdued over the last 12 months but has suddenly increased to over 70% of SGD swaps executed in September, up from 15% in June and less than 5% in May.

 

Conclusion

The FCA and most other regulators are clear, LIBOR and many other IBORs will become extinct in the global swaps market. Progress on adoption of new RFRs has certainly been made, particularly in SONIA where over 75% of new trades are SONIA. Probably more interesting though is the sudden and sharp progress in JPY (TONA), CHF (SARON) and SGD (SORA) compared to the more tranquil growth in other RFRs. There is clearly still a way to go to see the new RFRs completely replace the IBORs in global swaps trading.

SONIA continues to lead the pack with almost 80% of new GBP swaps executed…

 

But the big story in Q3 2021 is the sudden and dramatic progress of:

There has even been some limited progress in:

 

What’s next?

More significant milestone dates approach as certain IBORs cease to exist, and clearing houses are mandatorily converting IBOR positions into a relevant RFRs. Watch this space…

 

 

Back to beginning

1  2

Mitigating the challenges of index cessation fallbacks and conversion

2021: Brexit, no equivalence and the day of the SEF

The transitional period ended on 31 December with no relief for European Union (EU) firms on the derivatives trading obligation (DTO) from the European Commission (EC) and only limited adjustments from the United Kingdom (UK). This left many firms with conflicting and incompatible DTOs in the EU and the UK without equivalence (albeit based on identical rules) and no apparent option other than to trade the relevant derivatives on a US Swap Execution Facility (SEF), or in Singapore.

As we reached the half way point in January IHS Markit interrogated the data processed by IHS Markit’s MarkitWire platform to assess the impact of Brexit on OTC interest rate swap trading for the three currencies subject to the DTO in the EU and the UK and the CFTC’s Made Available to Trade (MAT) requirements in the US.

Current position:

Specific challenges:

This is madness, is there any relief?

What did the market expect?

Many hoped that equivalence, even temporarily, would follow a trade deal. However, currently the focus is on the MoU on financial services that both sides committed to agree by the end of March, which creates an environment for equivalence between the jurisdictions to be reached. However, in the absence of such an agreement, it was inevitable that some activity would move from MTFs / OTFs to SEFs and EU and UK firms would have less access to global liquidity.

What happened? (Spoiler alert – no surprises here…)

Conclusion

Time and time again the data shows us that the OTC derivative markets are global in nature and very agile. Trading liquidity in OTC interest rate derivatives tends to concentrate on a currency by currency basis, liquidity begets liquidity…

We saw in 2013-2015 how the CFTC cross border rules pushed trading overseas, and more recently the implementation of CFTC’s prohibition of PTNGU did the same (albeit to a much lesser extent due to other factors).

However, now the combination of a hard-ish Brexit, the lack of EU – UK equivalence combined with the equivalence available from both the EU and UK to use US SEFs, was always going to reverse and surpass that. The data never lies.

Of course, the real cost of fragnented global liquidity is more expensive hedging and ultimately higher costs to end users; companies, investors, pension funds and ultimately us all.

Time will tell whether a belated equivalence deal between the EU and UK will reverse this shift to SEFs or even whether the ‘success’ of the EC strategy around the Share Trading Obligation (STO), which is likely to make the EC more determined to see through their similar strategy on DTO leaves us with a EUR and GBP IRS market based in New York…

Note: The calculations are based on (i) all new single currency interest rate swaps; Including IRS & OIS (fixed versus floating), fixed versus fixed swaps and basis swaps (floating vs floating) referencing all floating rate options (indices).

Posted 20 January 2021 by Kirston Winters, Managing Director − MarkitSERV, IHS Markit

IHS Markit provides industry-leading data, software and technology platforms and managed services to tackle some of the most difficult challenges in financial markets. We help our customers better understand complicated markets, reduce risk, operate more efficiently and comply with financial regulation.

Services